Kiribati and China deepen ties

Written by: (Contributed) on 2 April 2025

(Above: Chinese and Kiribati leaders in Beijing in 2020   Source Xinhua)

Moves by Kiribati to negotiate a deep-sea mining deal with China have closely followed similar moves by the Cook Islands. The moves have taken place against a backcloth of underlying trends in the global economy and a changing balance of forces, with far-reaching implications for US hegemony. The two tiny Pacific Island countries have, for example, geo-strategic significance for US-led regional military and security provision.

In mid-March, Kiribati, a tiny Pacific island with 130,000 residents, announced it had initiated high-level diplomatic talks with China about securing a deep-sea mining partnership of a vast area surrounding the country. (1) The seabed deposits of cobalt, nickel and copper are regarded as 'key minerals for the global battery industry'. (2)

Kiribati, furthermore, has a huge Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) covering 3,437,132 square kms, in comparison to its total landmass of only 811 square kms, ensuring the former is 4,238 times larger than the latter. (3)

In fact, concerns have been expressed in US-led commentary that by switching their diplomatic allegiance to China from Taiwan, small Pacific Island states have provided China with diplomatic access to about 80 per cent of the Pacific Ocean. (4)

Many of the small islands also have a significant role in US-led regional defence and security provision; the Pentagon began a six year and $27.4 billion upgrading plan in 2021 to establish a network of precision-strike missiles along island chains in what was described as the 'Indo-Pacific theatre'. (5) The US-led military plan has also included provision for a 'fielding of an Integrated Joint Force with precision-strike networks … and integrated air missile defence'. (6)

The fact that Kiribati is half-way between Pine Gap and the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii reveals its sensitive geo-strategic position. (7) The Cook Islands, likewise, rests on similar sensitive arcs between US military facilities.

Decades of relative neglect during the previous Cold War by the US toward the Pacific sland nations and neo-colonial relations, however, assured they were 'sovereign and independent in appearance only'. (8) It was the golden age of US imperialism; in fact, the official position of the US during the period was stated clearly by John Foster Dulles, US Secretary of State, 1953-59, as 'there are two ways of conquering a foreign nation. One is to gain control of its people by force of arms; the other is to gain control of its economy by financial means'. (9) That US hegemonic regional position has now become history.

The rise of China, particularly in the Pacific region has already seriously challenged US hegemony; even US analysts in Washington have concluded that the US is no longer the dominant power in the Pacific. (10) The US have been quietly pushed aside.

The changing balance of forces has been verified with economic data from within the corporate world itself; figures quoted by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 2008 noted that while the US held about one-third of the world's financial assets with $56.1 trillion and the emerging market economies held $23.6 trillion, the latter were growing at twice the rate of the former. (11) The economic growth of the latter has also taken place with a multiplier effect.

Trade bodies, including the BRICs, have emerged as strong contenders in the global economy, particularly as they expand their membership into other areas of the world, including the Middle East. Studies of the expansion have concluded the emerging markets were collectively averaging nearly six per cent growth rates, with China and India together with 28 other countries, leading the way. (12) ASEAN, likewise, has also emerged as an influential trade bloc, with strong collective growth rates.

The US, however, has failed to reach the same growth rates; in fact, following a high-spot in the mid-1960s, their economy has hovered around two per cent growth rates for decades. (13) The problem has become a major factor behind the recent political turmoil surrounding the Trump administration and their financial advisers; they are in panic mode and frantic to deal with China, by whatever means they regard as warranted, including real-war scenarios.

The move by Kiribati to foster stronger links with China, therefore, is best assessed in the context of a subsequent changing balance of forces away from traditional US hegemonic positions. Chinese social-imperialism, in pursuing a policy promoted as supporting mutually beneficial trade and financial support, has presented a credible challenge to US diplomatic positions with tiny, and seemingly, forgotten countries, previously assessed by Washington as barely significant.

As a result of Kiribati pursuing closer links with China, its link with regional partners, Australia and New Zealand, have been noted to 'have become strained … there has been a … tectonic shift in the region'. (14) The fact that Australia's aid budget for developmental assistance has now dropped from 1.2 per cent of the federal budget to a mere 0.68 per cent remains a factor when studying the Pacific Island countries. (15)

Governments across the Pacific are now clearly looking at alternatives to traditional US-led support. More are likely to follow the lead of both Kiribati and the Cook Islands.

It is important to note that moves by the Kiribati government have also fostered some economic development in favour of the more vulnerable sectors of society in recent times. A recent government study noted poverty rates amongst the elderly, unemployed and disabled had been slashed by seventy per cent. (16)

1.     See: Kiribati floats Chinese deep-sea mining deal, Australian, 19 march 2025.
2.     Kiribati explores deep-sea mining deal with China amid global regulatory talks, The Investing News Network, 20 March 2025.
3.     China now controls 80% of the Pacific EEZ; US v. China, Japan Forward: Politics and Security, Rieko Hayakawa and Jennifer L. Anson, 14 February 2020.
4.     Ibid.
5.     US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain, Nikkei, 5 March 2021.
6.     US Indo-Pacific Command proposes new missile capabilities to deter China, RFA., 5 March 2021.
7.     See: Peters Projection, World Map, Actual Size.
8.     See: The plunder of the poor nations, Why are they poor? in The Enemy – Notes on Imperialism and Revolution, Felix Greene, (London, 1970), Chapter 4, pp. 135-151.
9.     Quoted, ibid., page 139.
10.   Study: US no longer dominant power in the Pacific, Paul D. Shinkman, Information Clearing House, 22 August 2019.
11.   Davos salutes SWFs in a celebration of global capitalism, Australian, 29 January 2008.
12.   'Nearly 6% growth', The Economic Times, 25 April 2024.
13.   US GDP growth rate, 1961-2025, Macrotrends.
14.   Pacific nation of Kiribati explores deep-sea mining deal with China, Radio Free Asia, 17 March 2025.
15.   Marles' $1bn snub for Trump, Australian, 25 March 2025.
16.   Kiribati's targeted support slashes poverty by 70%, The Tarawa Times, 19 March 2025.

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