Exercise Cope Thunder 2025 and declining US regional influence

Written by: (Contributed) on 18 April 2025

(Above: part of the Filipino and US forces involved in Exercise Cope Thunder)

Those following the latest United States – Philippines military exercises might like to consider other related and highly relevant factors having serious implications for US-led diplomatic relations with the wider Indo-Pacific region. The US remains desperate to reassert their traditional hegemonic position in the region; evidence would tend to indicate their position, however, has already been eclipsed by China and countries diplomatically associated with Beijing.

In early April the US and Philippine air forces began Exercise Cope Thunder, running until 18 April, officially aimed at enhancing interoperability and 'strategic deterrence … and … combat readiness and elevating joint mission effectiveness' across the wider region. (1) The air-forces of Malaysia, Thailand, Australia, Japan and Indonesia were also involved. The exercise closely followed other similar drills to 'ultimately strengthen the collective posture across the Indo-Pacific'. (2) It is also a precursor to the Balikatan military exercises.

The election of Ferdinand Marcos Jnr to the presidency in 2022, backed by the Marcos oligarchy, has strengthened the hand of the US in the Philippines. Studies of the country reveal the US diplomatic and foreign policy toward the Philippines has changed little since the previous Cold War. In fact, the country has remained the most reliable and central vantage point for 'US interests' across the wider region; it has, historically, dominated the Philippines economically, politically and culturally due to the very deep penetration of US capital. It is also a relatively secure vantage point for regional surveillance with nine military facilities hosting US personnel overseeing the South China Seas and the Taiwan Straits to the north.

The US also relies upon counterparts based in Taiwan as another part of the regional surveillance provision with nearly five hundred personnel, on temporary leave from the State Department, based in the so-called American Institute in Taipei. (3) It is, therefore, not coincidental that Exercise Cope Thunder has taken place amid concerns about China's longer-term planning for Taiwan. Diplomatic and military tensions have escalated across the Taiwan Straits in recent times. It is, therefore, not coincidental that Exercise Cope Thunder was planned to take place in an area of the Philippines closest to the Straits. (4)

The same US military planning has also included the Pentagon considering providing the Philippines with a second Typhoon missile defence system with capability for firing Tomahawk missiles up to 2500 kms. (5) The missiles put China's east and south coasts within range, areas regarded as hosting sensitive military and port facilities. (6)

While the US has long used security-related issues to support their economic position, history, however, has significantly moved on in less than a decade. It has been noted by prestigious US outsourced intelligence bodies that the US diplomatic position in the Asia region has been challenged by a deepening cooperation between regional countries, and the US has not adapted to a changing balance of forces taking place. (7) The same institute only six years later, recently concluded that 'the US is pretty much done in South-east Asia'. (8)

The imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, for example, is not evidence of their ability to manipulate international financial markets, but a clear marker that the balance of forces is swinging away from them. In fact, informed opinion has already noted that Trump's policies have created the diplomatic conditions for regional trade blocs such as ASEAN to be pushed closer to China and 'it hands a pretty significant victory to China for the obvious reason that the US is effectively cutting ties with these countries'. (9)

Other factors also provide an interesting glimpse of how the US has been out-manoeuvred.

Making the acquisition of critical minerals a national security concern, has revealed just how fearful the US have become of confronting China as a credible competitor. In fact, security issues raised about a Chinese naval ship circulating Australia were not openly concerned about more usual surveillance considerations but research into deep-sea mineral deposits in international waters. It was noted, for example, that the vessel had stopped over areas thought to be rich in minerals and had used a submersible for exploration of polymetallic nodule fields containing nickel, cobalt and copper, used in the manufacturing of batteries and electric vehicles. (10)

Commentary from Washington that the US is considering building refining facilities for critical minerals inside Pentagon military bases has also revealed just how highly the US regard the matter on the grounds of national security. (11) While no specific US military bases were identified, it would be reasonable to assume that its Indo-Pacific Command facilities in Hawaii were being considered, due to their strategic geo-political significance, together with joint Philippine military facilities. They are within easy reach of the US, with secure shipping lanes across the Western Pacific.

The fact that US concerns about China's successful diplomacy with countries in the Pacific is also further evidence of their fear that Beijing will gain access to the vast Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of the tiny countries across the vast region. Taiwan's regional influence, diplomatically, is continually shrinking, causing US-led diplomacy concern.

The high-level diplomatic visit to Australia of President Surangel Whipps Jnr of Palau in early April, for example, is best viewed along lines that fears exist of China's increasing influence in the tiny country and that, it too, may eventually switch diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China. (12)

Each time a country switches diplomatic allegiance from Taiwan to China, it enables Beijing to access the EEZs of the region. At present, it already has access to about eighty per cent of the region; Taiwan's share, once based on the 50/50 basis, is now only twenty per cent. (13)

In conclusion, traditional US diplomatic hegemony in the region has been successfully challenged by China and the response of the erratic Trump administration is evidence not of their power but a panic-stricken reaction:

We need an independent foreign policy!

1. Philippines and US launch drills aimed at boosting 'strategic deterrence', Australian, 8 April 2025.
2. See: Interoperability key to security in the region, Avalon 2025 Special report, Australian, 25 March 2025.
3. Beijing keeps a wary eye on new US Taipei outpost, From the Economist (U.K.), Australian, 18 June 2018.
4. Australian, op.cit., 8 April 2025.
5. America with Manila in face of 'China threats', The Weekend Australian, 29-30 March 2025.
6. Ibid.
7. Why America is losing the ploy in Asia, The Carnegie Institute, 28 February 2019.
8. Punishment will push the region into China's arms, The Weekend Australian, 5-6 April 2025.
9. Ibid.
10. See: Chinese 'spy ship' on survey mission, Australian, 9 April 2025.
11. See: Minerals the ultimate bargaining chip, Australian, 7 April 2025.
12. See: Palau defies China's pressure on Taiwan. Australian, 11 April 2025.
13. US v. China, Japan Forward: Politics and Security,Dr. Rieko Hayakawa and Jennifer Anson, 14 February 2020.