The book is also an insight as to how the small "l" liberal bourgeoisie see the world as an ideological struggle between "liberal democratic governance" and "one-party autocratic systems". 

 

The book was written and first published in 2024 during Biden's Presidency before Trump's second term as US President in late 2025. 

 

Niblett shows some awareness that the election of Trump in 2025 may well see his favoured "liberal democratic governance" disappear when he ends the book with the following words: "We must be ready to pick up the baton as champions of liberal democracy globally if the United States sets it to one side, and hope that it will not be for long."

 

 

Niblettt examines the changing balance of global power between the US and China as the people and countries across the globe race through the third decade of the 21st Century.

 

Niblett is a Senior Fellow at Chatham House in the UK. Chatham House was set up in 1919-20 by members of the British ruling class who had an interest in analyzing international political trends and conflicts and providing advice to governments that would maximize diplomatic solutions between countries thereby averting outbreak of war between big powers on the international stage.

 

In his book "The New Cold War", Niblett sees some similarities between the current rivalry between the US and China and the outbreak of World War 1 in 1914. 

 

In 1914, there were high levels of international trade as there are now, but this did not prevent a "rising imperial Germany and increasingly overstretched British empire" from engaging in the supposed "war to end all wars".

 

Niblett also sees similarities between the current rivalry between the US and China and the old Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union when there were no arms control agreements leading up to the Bay of Pigs crisis in the early 1960s.

 

Nisbett also asks whether Taiwan will be the trigger for world war as was the Balkans in 1914?

 

Taiwan's technological and geo-political importance to the US in the Asia Pacific region directly clashes with the importance economically and politically to China that Taiwan be restored as part of the People's Republic of China.

 

Niblett implies that economically if the US loses Taiwan, it will be the straw that broke the camel's back. He provides plenty of examples to show how China is definitely winning the economic stakes in its competition with the US.

 

For example,

 

1. China now equals Germany in advanced manufacturing

2. China has its own digital companies such as Alipay and We Chat

3. In 2023 China had up to 4 million University Graduates in engineering, science and technology per year

4. In 2023 China produced over 90% of processed lithium and cobalt and 90% of rare earth mining in the world. Rare earth minerals are essential for wind turbines, smartphones and many electronic sub-components

5. Between 2010 and 2020 the US invested 150 billion Pounds Stirling in China. 

6. Chinese trade with other countries within US traditional trade markets. For example, Chinese trade with Latin America in 2001 was $12 billion. In 2022 it was $496 billion. 

 

 

Niblett acknowledges that the "autocratic" one Party Chinese state is winning the economic New Cold War. Nisbett is hopeful that if the western "liberal democracies" continue "free trade" with China and increase their "partnerships" with the "Global South" countries, that this will retard the economic global power of China and hence reduce the likelihood of the New Cold War between the US and China turning into an open "hot war".

 

Events that have occurred after Nisbett published his book in 2024 indicate that his hope that extension of "liberal democracies" across the "Global South" will retard China's economic dominance and therefore prevent a cold war turning into a hot war will not eventuate. The military build-up of the US and its allies in the Asia Pacific region, US military aggression against Venezuela, US backed Israeli aggression in the Middle East and the trend to the extreme Right in western "liberal democracies" including Australia and the US itself, all point to the New Cold War turning into a hot war.

 

For Australians, an independent foreign policy and cessation of the attack on our limited democratic rights become an urgent task