US to rely on military means of countering Chinese Pacific presence

Written by: (Contributed) on 10 June 2025

(Above: from China News Service)

Tensions and hostilities between the US and China are set to escalate following the announcement that Beijing hosted some high-level diplomatic meetings in late May. They included meetings with the Pacific Islands, ASEAN and the Gulf Co-operation Council.

The US response included movement of troop elsewhere in the region and claims by the US that China was preparing to invade Taiwan, assessed by the US as a threat to the whole Indo-Pacific region; information emerging from reliable sources has revealed Washington is reassessing various options to deal with the rising power of China.

The options have implications for US regional allies, especially Australia.

In late May the leaders of eleven Pacific Islands had high-level diplomatic talks hosted by Beijing in the eastern city of Xiamen. (1) China announced the regional summit was aimed at fostering closer ties with the Pacific; agenda items included discussions on 'comprehensive exchanges and co-operation … as well as international regional issues of common concern'. (2) China's foreign policy has remained based in mutually beneficial matters which has won increased support from diplomatic partners, with an emphasis upon 'jointly building a closer China-Pacific Island community with a shared future'. (3)

Examples of China's soft-style diplomacy has included a 'suite of new building's' as part of Vanuatu's presidential palace. (4) There are numerous other examples of similar standing:
China's diplomacy has won the country increased support across the Indo-Pacific region, presenting a credible challenge to traditional US hegemonic positions.

One noticeable addition to China's diplomatic moves has been the shift across the region of countries previously recognising Taiwan to China. In recent years Kiribati, the Solomon Islands and Nauru have switched diplomatic allegiance, thereby strengthening China's position at the United Nations. With Taiwan now being officially diplomatically recognised by only a handful of countries it has become increasingly vulnerable and, therefore, a major preoccupation with US regional diplomacy. The official US position is that China has already established plans to invade Taiwan by 2027. There is, however, little credible evidence available in the public domain. A far more likely assessment and scenario is that the US is using it as a pretext for a massive regional military expansion to appease Wall Street and the military-industrial complex.

It is not difficult to establish the hidden hands wringing their greasy mitts in glee behind the US defence department: Pentagon contractors were paid US$108 billion for services they provided in Afghanistan. (5)

Taiwan, furthermore, also marks the centre-point of sensitive island chains used by the US to restrict access and egress across the region, at present being enlarged into fourth and fifth chains across the Indian Ocean.

The Pacific Islands diplomatic meetings were quickly followed by a further round of similar meetings with the ten ASEAN countries which also included the Gulf Co-operation Council, composed of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.(6) An official diplomatic statement about the meeting noted 'these engagements reflect how ASEAN, the GCC and China can come together to advance their shared economic interests'. (7) It was also noted that ASEAN and the GCC 'were emerging economies in Asia, important members of the global south, and important partners in the Belt and Road co-operation'. (8) China's diplomatic influence can be seen to have moved into countries historically associated with US diplomatic hegemony, with relative ease.

Recent ASEAN diplomatic initiatives have also included moves toward incorporating both East Timor and PNG as full members; both countries have, historically, been closely associated with Australia as a regional hub for 'US interests'. (9)

The China-led diplomatic initiatives have shown their skilful nature toward dealing with the US, which has been increasingly forced out of similar initiatives. In fact, at a time when countries across the global south have proved both resilient and robust in the face of US-led challenges with the threat of tariffs, Washington has become increasingly isolationist while pushing its America First agenda. China has filled the vacuum.

The US response to these recent developments was two-fold: an announcement they were considering moving 4,500 troops from South Korea (ROK) to elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific and calling upon Australia to increase its defence budget while drawing attention to the vulnerability of Taiwan.

Both announcements are best viewed in the context of preparations for a US-led regional war.

The US has, historically, maintained troop numbers in the ROK at about 28,500. Many of the military personnel remain in the country for lengthy periods, indicating specialist positions in various capacities, including signals intelligence (SIGINT). Based in the interception and analysis of telecommunications, SIGINT has a long and secret history of espionage; shadowy spooky figures operating on the margins, monitoring the centres of societies. (10) Detailed studies of SIGINT operational inside the elite Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network, for example, reveal civil liberties for ordinary people have already largely disappeared with the introduction of hi-tech equipment by governments. (11)

It is not particularly difficult to establish where the US are considering placing their SIGINT specialists. Earlier in the decade the Pentagon established a Pacific Deterrence Initiative based on a 'network of precision-strike missiles along the so-called first island chain'. (12) The initiative is now well under-way, with additional 'integrated air missile defence on the second island chain'. (13)

The proposals, which have yet to be ratified by the White House, have included official statements from the Trump administration about their intention of 'bolstering the second island chain'. (14)

Secondly, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, has called upon Canberra to drastically increase defence spending from the present 2.02 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent. No reason was forthcoming from the Pentagon about the magic number of 3.5 per cent of GDP, or how the extra funding should be allocated. It has, however, tended to follow a trend of frequent outbursts of speculative and erratic behaviour by the entire Trump administration, reflecting diplomatic behaviour falling well short of being regarded as professional and competent.

The US Defence Department, with a budget of nearly US$ 1 trillion, with 1.3 million active duty personnel and a further one million civilians, for example, has been described by informed and reliable observers as being both chaotic and dysfunctional. (15) It is not difficult to establish why the Pentagon is experiencing such problems; Hegseth is well known as an alcoholic. (16)

Australia, in fact, when compared to its four other partners inside the Five Eyes, already has an average defence budget:

Defence Spending as % of GDP

US - 3.4
UK - 2.3
Australia - 2.02
New Zealand - 1.31
Canada - 1.3
Total = 10.33

10.33 divided by 5 = 2.066 (17)

In conclusion, there is no need for Australia to increase its defence budget:

We need an independent foreign policy!

*****

1. China to host Pacific leaders summit, Australian, 22 May 2025; and, China to host Pacific Islands leaders, seeking closer ties, AFP., 21 May 2025.
2. Australian, ibid., 22 May 2025.
3. Ibid.
4. See: China builds a new presidential palace in Pacific's Vanuatu, AFP., 2 July 2024.
5. Pentagon contractors in Afghanistan pocketed $108 billion over 20 years, change.org., 23 August 2022.
6. Jakarta calls on ASEAN to make PNG a member, Australian, 28 May 2025; and, South-east Asian leaders meet to talk tariffs, truce and East Timor, Australian, 27 May 2025.
7. Australian, ibid., 27 May 2025.
8. Ibid.
9. Australian, ibid., 27 May 2025; and, Australian, op.cit., 28 May 2025.
10. Espionage, Spies and Secrets, Richard M. Bennett, (London, 2003), SIGINT, pp. 283-84.
11. See: Spyworld, How the C.S.E. spies on Canadians and the world, Mike Frost, as told to Michel Gratton, (Toronto, 1995).
12. US to build anti-China missile network along first island chain, Nikkei/Asia, 5 March 2021.
13. US Indo-Pacific Command proposes new missile capabilities to deter China, RFA., 5 March 2021.
14. US bolsters 'second island chain', Nikkei/Asia, 1 April 2025.
15. 'Chaos' and 'dysfunctional' reign inside Pete Hegseth's Pentagon, ABC News, 22 April 2025.
16. Pete Hegseth's Secret History, The New Yorker, 26 January 2025.
17. Defence Spending as % of GDP., Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2024.