Trump and the decline of US power-politics

Written by: (Contributed) on 29 July 2025

(Above; image from https://www.usatoday.com/)

Despite dominating world political and diplomatic developments since the end of the Second World War, the US now appears to be losing its cutting edge. Reliable statistical information has cast a rather different light over US claims to be a leading super-power.

It has far-reaching implication for Wall Street, the military-industrial complex and corporate sector and class and state power. There remains little doubt, therefore, that the most aggressive part of US economic system favours the Trump presidential administration to defend and further their interests. And real-war scenarios have become a serious agenda item as they fear the rise of China.

Mainstream media coverage of US politics and diplomacy have tended to concentrate upon Trump as the leading figure; he only represents, however, part of the Republican Party, which has long used far-right associates to protect select financial interests. In fact, serious studies from the previous Cold War have cast a long shadow upon recent developments. (1)

A leading critic of the Trump administration recently commented 'Trump is downright weird, if not dangerous'. (2) The character assessment may be correct, although it presents only part of the whole picture. Those associated with the administration are inevitably powerful and rich people; he represents the interests of the higher levels of the corporate sector. Trump's arbitrary and erratic decision-making procedures merely reflect a juggling of the interests of different associates amid an 'abandonment of any consistent ideology in a drive for state power'. (3)

They have serious matters on their minds: the Trump administration and their associates fear the eclipse of US power in the global arena. And they are frantic to defend their own interests. The walls, nevertheless, are closing in and the socially constructed reality created by class and state-based psychological warfare techniques, filtered through to an entire society, is now visibly cracking and under serious strain. It is unlikely to survive; the moronic rantings of the MAGA entourage are little other than a diplomatic embarrassment.

While the US remains the world's largest economy, China, a serious competitor, is quickly catching up. US GDP for 2025, for example, has already been estimated to reach about $30.51 trillion, while China's GDP will reach $19.23 trillion; the US, however, have economic growth rates of about 1.8 per cent in comparison to China which reaches 4.0 per cent with relative ease. (4)

Reliable economic indicators, forecasts and projections have also specified that the US economy 'is set to slow … with the impact of tariffs becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year'. (5) It will have considerable bearing upon the Trump administration.

Reliable studies of China's economy have also concluded 'China is the largest trading economy in the world'. (6)

China, rising from a low-level participant in global economic forecasting, displaced Japan as the world's second biggest economy in 2010, it now accounts as 63 per cent of the US total, and remains a rising star. (5) Japan, once displaced, furthermore, has now sunk to fifth place with an economy estimated at about $4.19 trillion, and 0.6 per cent growth rates. (7)

The fact that the US rely upon Japan as a leading diplomatic and military ally and have elevated the US-Japan alliance to become 'a global alliance … with the Indo-Pacific Strategy', has revealed serious economic considerations in both Washington and the Pentagon. (8)

While the US emerged victorious from the Second World War, its paramount position was relatively short-lived; following the Korean War 'the American economy was put on a permanent military footing. It did not require the outbreak of actual war to keep the economy going, the Cold War did just as well'. (9) The policy continued through the previous Cold War, the so-called New World Order and into the present Cold War.

The whole period was marked by the rise of the US military industrial complex and its ability to foist war-mongering and an arms race onto compliant allies. It was a lucrative business; fortunes were made. They now fear losing them, despite the US still accounting for nearly 40 per cent of global military spending. (10) The Trump administration fear losing the support of shareholders in the defence industries. The large, and unwieldy, military apparatus, with numerous foreign bases, facilities and logistics hubs, has become increasingly a liability rather than a display of US military might.

During the early 1950s, US defence spending amounted to 13.58 per cent of GDP, later, during the Vietnam War it fell to 9.27 per cent, reaching only 4.9 per cent during more recent military debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan. (11) The US economy, during the period, was growing fast. And war was, and remains, big business.

Today, however, the US economy is not as robust, and certainly not sustainable. Problems, therefore, loom on the horizon, which will include further cuts to government expenditure. It is unlikely to be popular with the electorate and society at large when the stark choice emerges between funding the military-industrial complex or more pressing concerns about living standards.

In fact, from a high spot during the mid-1960s when US GDP growth reached 6.5 per cent, it has now sunk to only 2.8 per cent last year. (12) It has been overtaken by defence budgets:
the Pentagon, for example, have already formulated plans to increase defence budgets to a projected $447.31 trillion by 2033, with over four per cent growth for each year from 2025 to 2033. (13)

It is not difficult, therefore, to assess the background to the Trump presidential administration, and where it remains based.

Demands by the US for NATO members to increase their contributions are best assessed in that light: in 2023, the 31 NATO members contributed $1341 billion, while the US contribution was $916 billion, which accounted for 68 per cent of the total. (14) As the US attempt to justify their increased defence budgets, they now expect other countries to subsidise their militarism and war-plans.

In conclusion, amid increased defence spending and escalating diplomatic tensions, the world has rarely been so insecure and the threat of war has become very real:

We need an independent foreign policy!

1. See: Old Nazis, the New Right and the Republican Party, Russ Bellant, (Boston, 1988).
2. Could Rupert Murdoch bring down Trump?, The New Daily, 22 July 2025.
3. Bellant, op.cit., page x.
4. Forbes: Top Twenty Largest Economies (2025).
5. Leading US indicators show clouds gathering, Australian, 23 July 2025.
6. How China built a global network of ports, Australian, 22 July 2025.
7. Forbes, op.cit., (2025).
8. Ibid.
9. See: The reasons behind Washington's push for GSOMIA., Hankyoreh, 12 November 2019.
10. The Enemy, Notes on Imperialism and Revolution, Felix Greene, (London, 1970), page 215.
11. US Defence Budgets, 'US Defence Spending', Econofact, 14 May 2024.
12. Ibid.
13. GDP Growth (annual per centage), United States, The World Bank Group.
14. US Defence Industry Report, 2025, Yahoo!finance, 23 June 2024.
15. Fact Sheet, April 2024, SIPRA (Sweden).