US-Chinese rivalry in Micronesia

Written by: (Contributed) on 11 September 2025

(Source: www.deritszalkmaar.nl)

The vast Micronesian area of the Indo-Pacific region is rapidly becoming a potential flashpoint in Cold War hostilities between the US and China. As China has emerged as a serious competitor, the traditional regional hegemonic position of the US has been challenged. The US has responded with defensive positions and preparations for 'real war scenarios'. A number of defence and security considerations pushed by the US have also been played-out through regional proxies, including Taiwan.

A recent defence and security assessment issued by Canberra noted that Micronesia was an important consideration as 'it is an important strategic access where the interests of China, Japan, Taiwan and the US, as well as several South-east Asian countries, intersect. Micronesia's strategic significance is rising'. (1) Cold War diplomatic rivalries have also created serious considerations for the forthcoming Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) in Honiara where China has questioned the validity of a 33-year old communique 'granting Taiwan special development partner status'. (2)

Following high-level diplomatic talks, the PIF chose to not invite all 21 dialogue partners to their September meeting as a means of resolving the impasse.

Behind the Cold War diplomatic stand-off between the US and China a few inconvenient matters continue to cause the US serious concern. It has been noted, for example, that the US, 'has only a small diplomatic footprint in the Pacific and relies on the PIF to build rapport with individual leaders'. (3) The US, as a PIF dialogue partner, has also been excluded from the forthcoming meeting, thereby reducing its regional diplomatic standing still further.

China, by contrast, now has ten embassies in the Pacific and it has been noted it 'doesn't need the PIF meeting … they are already in Honiara'. (4) The links between the Solomon Islands and China have been noted to be particularly strong.

The diplomatic status of Taiwan amongst Pacific Island nations has continued to haunt US regional considerations. To date, only three Pacific Island states now recognise Taipei: Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands and Palau.

It is, however, the Micronesian area of the Pacific which has caused the US serious concerns; the vast area is composed of thousands of small islands and landmasses, some of which have been used to host sensitive US military facilities, including Guam which is a hub for 'US interests' and linked on an arc from Pine Gap swinging from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to Micronesia. Many of the islands, furthermore, remain of strategic significance with the US Island Chain Theory, designed to restrict China's access and egress from the area.

Palau, likewise, remains of vital strategic significance to US-led regional defence and security provision; it hosts 'a high-frequency radar system … to detect air and surface targets'. (5) It is also highly strategic for regional US-led military planning with 'its place in the first island chain'. (6)

The Marshall Islands host the Ronald Reagan Ballistic Missile site which has a space surveillance system with a capacity to track satellites, primarily in low orbit. (7) Wake Island, which remains US territory north of the Marshall Islands, has hosted what is regarded as critical military bases for the A2AD system. (8)

In recent years the US have been quietly 'bolstering their defences and building infrastructure for more effective operations. This includes refurbishing World War Two airfields on Tinian near Saipan and Peleliu. It's expanding the airfield on Yap in the Federated States of Micronesia'. (9)

Many of the sensitive US military facilities rely upon Taiwan; the American Institute based in Taipei, has nearly five hundred US diplomatic personnel, on official temporary leave from the State Department in Washington. (10) It is, therefore, significant to note recent US defence budget allocations toward some of the countries still diplomatically recognising Taiwan.

Last year the US allocated $7.1 billion for defence and security facilities over the next two decades; the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), the Marshall Islands and Palau were linked into a highly strategic US-led military agreement. (11) While the FSM recognises China, its links with Beijing have become increasingly strained and high-level diplomatic talks have taken place in Taipei in recent times about switching allegiance, 'following frustrations with China'. (12)

Palau was also provided with a separate defence and security allocation for new projects and various upgrades for existing facilities, including a 'tactical over-the-horizon radar' system; the $118 million facility swings on an arc to Taipei which then swings through Wake Island and the Marshall Islands covering the whole of Micronesia. (13) References to asymmetric warfare techniques and sophisticated US military equipment used in the recent annual Taiwanese Han Kuang military and civil defence exercises are best viewed in that light. (14)

The same arc also swings through northern Australia and may well also reveal links into the US-led network; three bases at Australia's 'top end' have facilities for rapid deployment elsewhere in the region. (15)

1. Micronesia's strategic significance is rising, The Weekend Australian, 23/24 August 2025.
2. How Beijing turned Pacific forum into hot ticket, The Weekend Australian, 23/24 August 2025.
3. Ibid.
4. Ibid.
5. US v. China, Japan Forward: Politics and Security, Rieko Hayakawa and Jennifer L. Anson, 14 February 2020.
6. Agreement with Micronesia nations gives US military access, locks out China, Stars and Stripes, 21 March 2024.
7. US v. China, op.cit., 14 February 2020.
8. Ibid.
9. Micronesia's strategic significance is rising, op.cit., Australian, 23/24 August 2025.
10. Beijing keeps a wary eye on new US Taipei outpost, Australian, 18 June 2018.
11. Stars and Stripes, op.cit., 21 March 2024.
12. Pacific's Micronesia in talks to switch ties from Beijing to Taiwan, Reuters, 10 March 2023.
13. US proposes new defence site in Palau, The Pacific Island Times, 21 May 2024.
14. Taiwan launches largest drills, Australian, 10 July 2025.
15. See Wikipedia: RAAF Base Scherger; and, 'Ghost' RAAF Base, Australian, 27 August 2017.