Tuvalu: global warming forces diplomatic reappraisal

Written by: (Contributed) on 18 September 2025

(Above: Tuvalu and Funafuti. Credit: www.travelsvenue.com)

A major diplomatic statement from the Pacific Island country of Tuvalu has highlighted serious concerns for US-led foreign policy in the Indo-Pacific region, with implications for Australia. It also casts a long shadow on recent high-level diplomatic meetings between Australia and Japan. The recent diplomatic statement, concerning the inevitability of Tuvalu eventually switching its allegiance to China and away from Taiwan, has shown how the egional balance of forces is turning away from traditional US-led hegemonic positions; the very real threat of 'real-war scenarios' is quite apparent.

In early September, former Tuvalu three-time prime minister, Bikenibeu Paeniu, issued a high-level diplomatic statement concerning the country's allegiance to Taiwan. As a former Tuvalu ambassador to Taipei, the statement can be regarded as the outcome of a serious assessment and highly credible. Issued on the eve of the recent Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) it obviously caused raised eyebrows, particularly as it stated the 'tiny country had suffered from its increasingly isolated diplomatic position, and should not be expected to maintain its stance when the rest of the world had fallen into line on the issue'. (1) Taiwan's diplomatic stance, in the face of the universally accepted One China policy at the United Nations, has placed the country alongside only ten other countries; most are virtually insignificant.

Tuvalu, composed of three reef islands and six atolls, nevertheless, remains of huge strategic importance to US-led defence and security provision in Oceania and the wider Indo-Pacific region. Placed midway between Pine Gap, in Central Australia, and the US Indo-Pacific Command in Hawaii, it has been noted as 'an essential player in regional security initiatives … near critical trade routes'. (2) Tuvalu, however, has become increasingly encircled by neighbouring Pacific Island countries (PICs) with strong diplomatic links with Beijing in recent times; the problem has been assessed by the intelligence services as being of medium to high-level alerts for Chinese involvement inside foreign political systems. (3)

Since gaining its independence in October, 1978, Tuvalu has been an active member of the British Commonwealth, with strong diplomatic links to Canberra. In fact, the recent Falepili (Good Neighbour) Union Treaty between the two countries, has enabled citizens of Tuvalu to settle in Australia. (4)

The issue which has come to dominate Tuvalu's political dialogues in recent times has been the ever-pressing problem of global warming and rising sea-levels: its estimated 11,000 citizens have already experienced two islets disappearing beneath the sea, with more to follow in due course. (5) With official government commentary noting that 'our islands are only 3-4 metres above sea-level', the situation has become increasingly fraught. Reliable estimates have established, for example, that by 2050 about half of the capital, Funafuti, home to more than half the country's population, will 'be flooded by tidal waters'. (6)

Tuvalu is, therefore, faced with a desperate race against time, while decision-makers in Canberra and elsewhere remain in a state of denial about climate change and global warming. For those concerned, the issue is nothing other than a political football, pursued without serious and wider considerations, as in the case of Tuvalu.

Tuvalu, in recent times, for example, has received an offer from China to build sea-wall fortifications around the country to prevent rising sea-levels claiming more of the landmass, in exchange for a diplomatic switch to Beijing from Taipei. China has already gained a wealth of experience, elsewhere in the South China Seas, with similar programs; they are regarded by the US as a serious challenge to regional hegemonic positions.

The recent high-level diplomatic meetings between Australia and Japan, had questions surrounding the fate of Tuvalu, and other PICs lurking in the shadows; it was not, however, an official agenda item. While the US-Japan alliance has been upgraded to that of a global alliance, Japan in recent times has been seriously affected by economic and political uncertainty. (7) Its economy has remained stagnant for decades, and while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has virtually ruled the country since 1955, it has recently been forced into a minority government position in both parliamentary houses; its prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, was forced to recently resign 'in order to avoid splitting the long dominant LPD'. (8) The writing would appear on the wall for Japan.

In fact, it was not coincidental, therefore, that Ishiba resigned immediately following what was regarded as a successful high-level diplomatic meeting between Australia and Japan with defence and foreign ministers. (9) An official diplomatic statement following the meeting noted 'Japan and China faced geopolitical challenges in the Pacific region'. (10)

Japan, nevertheless, has become increasingly unstable and faces the rise of a far-right Sanseito Party, which has surged to third place by running a popularist Japanese First platform with all the hallmarks of a US-type MAGA campaign. It will, ultimately, lead to an increased political polarisation in Japanese society with far-reaching implications for the LDP and its allies. In fact, a recent US high-level diplomatic statement has already noted that 'it was up to Australia, New Zealand and the US to keep fighting to win hearts and minds in the region', without even paying reference to Japan. (11) Diplomatic silence?

The Trump presidential administration and the Pentagon appear to have already planned and foisted greater diplomatic and military responsibilities upon Australia:

We need an independent foreign policy!

1. 'Inevitable' Tuvalu will switch from Taiwan to China, Australian, 11 September 2025.
2. Tuvalu and its strategic military significance, Website: mexicohistorico.com; and, Map of the World, Peter Projection, Actual Size.
3. Winded, dined and hectored on Xi's diplomatic conveyor belt, The Weekend Australian, 13-14 September 2024.
4. See: Australian visa a bittersweet golden ticket to Tuvaluans, Australian, 1 October 2025.
5. Ibid.
6. Ibid.
7. The reasons behind Washington's push for GSOMIA., Hankyoreh, 12 November 2019.
8. Japanese PM quits after just 11 months, Australian, 8 September 2025.
9. Ministers' meeting reinforces ties and friendship with Japan, The Weekend Australian, 6-7 September 2025.
10. Ibid.
11. 'Relentless' China to 'use all avenues', Australian, 17 September 2025.